A few years ago, at the height of youthful overconfidence and Obama-fueled hubris, I started a blog called Republican Death Spiral. Its purpose was to catalogue instances of Republicans moving further and further to the right in order to placate the conservative base, in the process ruining their chances in general elections. Of course, I was only half right – the Republicans did nominate more and more conservative candidates thanks to the Tea Party movement, but they also won more elections than they lost, eventually taking back the House of Representatives in 2010. The blog didn’t last long, as business commitments overtook my desire to keep posting.
Why does this matter now? Because in a few cases – notably the 2010 Senate elections in Nevada and Delaware – I was actually correct in my hypothesis. The Republicans did nominate unelectable candidates (Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell) that flopped in the general election. And now it may be happening again, on the biggest stage imaginable.
Newt Gingrich didn’t just beat Mitt Romney in Saturday’s South Carolina Primary, he crushed him. Gingrich has a genuine chance of becoming the Republican nominee for President. Early polling in Florida has him at least even and possibly way ahead of Romney in the first winner-take-all state. He captures the essence of conservative resentment better than anyone else in the field and appeals to voters whose biggest desire is to knock Barack Obama down a few pegs.
It’s a real race, and the Republican establishment cannot be happy about it. Why? Because Newt’s numbers among the general public are incredibly bad. TPM’s Poll Tracker has him at a net favorable-unfavorable of 26.5% to 58.6%. A Republican nominee with minus-32 favorability cannot win a general election against Barack Obama.
The Republican Party has a real mess on its hands, and if it’s not careful, it may doom itself to a landslide loss in November.
Posted by Phil Swibinski
